Flight prices ‘to become cheaper’ airline chief says - but should you book now?
Jet fuel is the "biggest cost" for airlines, and falling crude oil prices are likely to have a knock-on effect on holiday prices, Willie Walsh, director-general of the International Air Transport Association (Iata), said.
Donald Trump's trade tariffs may actually be helping holidaymakers here, with oil prices falling partly due to fears for worldwide economic outlooks, according to The Times.
Speaking to Bloomberg ahead of IATA’s annual meeting in Delhi, Mr Walsh suggested lower oil prices may help carriers keep fares competitive and stimulate demand, even as the global economic outlook remains uncertain.
He said: "It’s typically our single biggest cost so it would help to offset any weakening demand if we were to witness a slowdown. It also tends to have an impact on pricing. There’s almost a direct correlation between the price of oil and the price of airline tickets.”
The fall in jet fuel prices follows a sharp drop in the price of crude oil, with Brent futures trading around $64 a barrel. The decline has been fuelled by a decision from Opec+ — the alliance of major oil-producing nations including Saudi Arabia and Russia — to significantly increase supply.
Over the past three months, the group has added more than a million barrels per day to the global market, with another 411,000 barrels per day scheduled for July. This marks the third consecutive month of accelerated production increases as the group seeks to unwind supply cuts that were first introduced in 2022 to stabilise prices.
Despite the easing of oil prices, analysts note that Saudi Arabia needs prices above $90 per barrel to fund domestic spending commitments, casting doubt on how long the current surplus will last.
Will flight prices actually come down?
While falling fuel costs are a positive sign, airfare reductions are not guaranteed. Ticket prices are influenced by a number of factors including demand, capacity, competition, and seasonal trends. However, lower operating costs could give airlines more flexibility to discount fares — particularly during off-peak periods or on less competitive routes.
In previous cycles, cheaper oil has tended to lead to more promotional fares and higher passenger volumes. While lower prices can stimulate demand, Walsh noted it “clearly drives down the overall revenue for the industry".
A good time to book?
With many families already planning summer getaways, some consumers may be wondering whether to lock in flights now or wait in hope of further drops.
Prices for popular destinations during the school holidays remain high, suggesting limited room for further reductions in peak periods, and it is usually advisable to book during school holidays as early as possible to get the best deals.
The best time to book depends on your destination, with the cheapest prices for long-haul travel coming in 16-30 days before departure, according to Opodo. When booking 91 or more days in advance, prices are around £127 more per person.
However, short-haul, European flights are more expensive when booking last minute. For trips to popular destinations like Spain, the best deal is typically found 31-60 days before departure. At this point, the average price is £171, compared to £205 when booking 0-15 days in advance, Opodo said.
Don’t forget travel insurance
As always, experts advise not to delay when it comes to travel insurance. Policies are often cheaper when bought early - and cover starts from the day of purchase, not the day of travel. This can be particularly important in the event of cancellations, delays, or unexpected illness before departure.
A comprehensive policy can also provide cover for lost baggage, medical emergencies, and disruptions due to strike action or adverse weather — risks that can increase during busy summer periods.
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