Which Areas of Manchester have the Largest Surge in Home Burglaries over the Christmas Season?
NimbleFins has found that the rate of home burglaries in Manchester rises notably around Christmas. Analysing data from the past few years, our team found that residential burglary rates rise 16% on average in Manchester during the festive season (December and January). Not only do the long, dark nights provide cover for would-be burglars, but homes are overflowing with enticing piles of brand-new consumer goods, from electronics to toys to jewellery that were bought as gifts—to the delight of friends and families—and burglars.
But which areas of Manchester are hardest hit?
Manchester Burglary Rates Increase over the Holidays
The residential burglary rate in Manchester is around 4.6 crimes per 10,000 residents each month for most of the year (February - November). But around Christmas, this crime figure jumps up 16.6% to 5.4 crimes monthly per 10,000 residents in December and January on average.
Manchester households are significantly more likely to be burgled over the holidays compared to the rest of the year. But some areas suffer a lot more. Which Manchester neighborhoods have it the worst?
To assess this, we gathered data from the Manchester Police's Crime Data Dashboard for residential burglaries throughout Manchester for the four years from August 2019 until September 2023 by area. See the Methodology section below for a detailed description of how we generated our results.
Where Manchester Burglary Rates Increase the Most Over the Holidays
The City of Manchester, Stockport and Wigan experience the largest percentage increase is residential burglaries in the months around Christmas (December and January), with crime rates popping up 19.6%, 19.1% and 19.0%, respectively, compared to average rates the rest of the year. At the other end of the spectrum, the residential burglary rate in Salford rose 11.8% around Christmas over the past few years.
Here's how much burglary rates surge in December and January, by area of Manchester
Manchester Neighborhoods Ranked by Lowest to Highest Surge in Burglary Rates at Christmas
| Rank (1 = Smallest Xmas Burglary Rate Rise, 10 = Largest) | Area of Manchester | Avg Monthly Burglary Rate: Feb - Nov (Burglaries/10,000 Residents) | Avg Monthly Burglary Rate: Dec - Jan (Burglaries/10,000 Residents) | Xmas Rate Surge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford | 4.6 | 5.2 | 11.8% |
| 2 | Bury | 4.1 | 4.6 | 12.8% |
| 3 | Trafford | 3.7 | 4.3 | 13.6% |
| 4 | Oldham | 4.2 | 4.8 | 14.5% |
| 5 | Rochdale | 4.7 | 5.4 | 14.8% |
| 6 | Bolton | 5.0 | 5.7 | 15.4% |
| 7 | Tameside | 4.0 | 4.7 | 18.1% |
| 8 | Wigan | 4.0 | 4.7 | 19.0% |
| 9 | Stockport | 4.5 | 5.4 | 19.1% |
| 10 | City of Manchester | 5.8 | 7.0 | 19.6% |
| Manchester Average | 4.6 | 5.4 | 16.6% | |
Which Areas of Manchester Have the Highest and Lowest Burglary Rates around Christmas?
Instead of looking at where burglary rates rise dramatically around Christmas, we can also compare the actual, underlying burglary rates by area. The results show that Trafford and Bury have the lowest burglary rates in Manchester over the December through January time period, with 4.3 and 4.6 homes burgled per 10,000 people a month, respectively (followed very closely by Tameside and Wigan, with 4.7 residential burglaries/10,000 people a month).
It is interesting that while Tameside and Wigan exhibit some of the lowest actual Christmas burglary rates at 4.7 burglaries a month/10,000 residents, these areas experience quite a large percentage increase, or surge, in burglaries at Christmas with a 18-19% rise. This means that these areas might normally feel quite safe, but residents could be surprised with higher surges in burglaries over the Christmas period.
Residents of the City of Manchester suffer the worst winter burglary rates, with 7.0 burglaries a month per 10,000 residents (this is 63% higher than Trafford).
See the table below to find where your area ranks.
Manchester Boroughs Ranked by Best to Worst Christmas Burglary Rates
| Rank (1 = Lowest Xmas burglary Rate, 11 = Highest) | Area of Manchester | Dec - Jan Burglary Rate (Average Monthly Burglaries per 10,000 Residents) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafford | 4.3 |
| 2 | Bury | 4.6 |
| 3 | Tameside | 4.7 |
| 4 | Wigan | 4.7 |
| 5 | Oldham | 4.8 |
| 6 | Salford | 5.2 |
| 7 | Stockport | 5.4 |
| 8 | Rochdale | 5.4 |
| 9 | Bolton | 5.7 |
| 10 | City of Manchester | 7.0 |
| Manchester Average | 5.4 | |
Preventing Loss
As we enter the Christmas period, now may be the time for the millions of Brits with no contents insurance to buy a policy, which would cover the cost of theft from the home. The cost of contents insurance from some big-name companies starts from around £70 a year.
The average amount stolen in a successful burglary where the offender gains entry is £2,856, making contents insurance well worth the cost if you're a burglary victim—and peace of mind if you're not.
However you may pay more that this depending on factors like where you live and the value of your belongings—according to the Association of British Insurer's, the average annual premium paid for contents insurance was around £116 a year or just over £2 a week in 2022, although rates have risen since then. And given the damage caused by burglars to homes, landlords should be sure they have landlord insurance in place as well.
In addition to securing contents insurance, you can also follow these quick tips to Keep Your Home Safe from Burglars Over the Holidays. If you're in the market for home insurance, you may want to take a look at our article on cheap home insurance or you can find more information on home insurance costs here.
Methodology
We analysed the most recent four+ years of residential burglary data (August 2019 to September 2023) from the Manchester Police's crime data dashboard.
To illustrate how the rate of home burglaries increases around the holidays, we first calculated average monthly burglary rates for each area, taking into account data over the 2019 to 2023 time period. Since we noticed a surge in burglaries in December and January, we then found the average burglary rate over this sensitive 2-month period, calculating how much higher (in % terms) the average "Christmas" rate is to the average rate for months February through November. This percentage showed up the surge in burglaries around the holidays compared to the rest of the year.
Finally, we ranked the areas according to their burglary rate per 10,000 people over the December to January time period, to see which areas have the lowest and highest likelihood of home burglaries.