Energy bills fell in 2025, but will it last in 2026?

After a series of welcome falls in gas and electricity bills throughout 2025, the trend is set to reverse. New forecasts suggest that the era of falling bills has come to an abrupt end, with a significant spike predicted for the second half of 2026.

According to the latest analysis from energy consultancy Cornwall Insight, the energy price cap is predicted to rise by over £130 this summer. Analysts now estimate the July cap will hit £1,800.79 per year for a typical household—an 8% increase from the current spring levels.

The current price cap—which is set to take effect from April 1 to June 30 2026—is £1,641 a year. This marks the lowest point for energy bills in over two years, but the relief is expected to be short-lived as volatile wholesale markets push the July forecast higher.

The cost of electricity and gas per unit is also expected to climb. For the July–September 2026 period, electricity is forecast at 25.94p/kWh and gas at 6.74p/kWh. Standing charges remain a significant burden, averaging 59p per day for electricity and 30p per day for gas.

Bills had risen through winter due to wholesale gas price rises and falling European stores through a cold winter. The cost of electricity is linked to gas prices.

The predicted rise serves as a stark reminder that the market remains "unsettled," a sentiment often echoed by Dr Craig Lowrey, Cornwall Insight's principal consultant. He has previously warned that "if prices can go down, they can bounce back up," and that the unsettled global economic landscape means the moment for complacency has not yet arrived.

Dr Lowrey urged the Government to bring in affordable options for struggling households, such as social tariffs or 'zonal pricing' which would charge different regions different rates based on supply and demand levels.

Will my energy bill definitely rise?

If you are on a standard variable tariff, your rates will likely increase in July to match the new cap. Ofgem will officially announce the July–September cap on 22 May 2026.

Because the price cap is now forecast to rise toward £1,800, the "typical" bill of £1,758 seen in January 2026 will be surpassed, making this summer more expensive than the previous winter.

Should I fix my energy deal now?

With a significant rise now forecast for July, the argument for fixing has changed. Earlier in the year, many experts suggested waiting; however, if you can find a fixed-rate deal close to the current £1,669 cap, locking it in now could save you over £130 a year compared to the predicted summer rates.

Energy price cap dates 2026

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