Herefordshire Crime Trends: You're Now More Likely to be a Victim of These Crimes
Offences on the Rise
Since 2003, Herefordshire residents are more likely to be a victim of 10 types of criminal offence: death or serious injury caused by illegal driving, stalking and harassment, homicide, sexual offences, violence without injury, possession of weapons offences, drug offences, theft from the person, public order offences and violence with injury. The number of these reported offences has increased anywhere from 4% (for violence with injury) up to 473% (for stalking and harassment) over the past 15 years.
Of particular note are the offences that more than doubled in number from 2003 to 2018. For example, incidents of stalking and harassment rose 473% from 161 reported offences in 2003 to 923 in 2018. Sexual offences rose 172% from 166 in 2003 to 452 in 2018; violence without injury increased by 144% from 726 offences in 2003 to 1,773 offences in 2018; possession of a weapon offences rose 136% from 53 in 2003 to 125 in 2018.
The increase in death or serious injury caused by illegal driving cannot be quantified on a percentage basis as there were zero offences recorded in 2003 (and it's mathematically impossible to calculate a percentage of zero), but nonetheless the risk of this has increased as well with 10 reported offences in 2018.
| Offence | 2003 | 2008 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | % Change (2003-2018) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Death or serious injury caused by illegal driving | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 | n/a |
| Stalking and harassment | 161 | 117 | 301 | 308 | 490 | 766 | 850 | 923 | 473% |
| Homicide | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 200% |
| Sexual offences | 166 | 144 | 209 | 227 | 423 | 417 | 519 | 452 | 172% |
| Violence without injury | 726 | 565 | 652 | 631 | 1174 | 1266 | 1560 | 1773 | 144% |
| Possession of weapons offences | 53 | 88 | 42 | 63 | 70 | 96 | 81 | 125 | 136% |
| Drug offences | 324 | 316 | 476 | 432 | 440 | 523 | 515 | 412 | 27% |
| Theft from the person | 113 | 106 | 84 | 43 | 81 | 89 | 81 | 130 | 15% |
| Public order offences | 522 | 523 | 317 | 321 | 416 | 525 | 679 | 585 | 12% |
| Violence with injury | 1240 | 1159 | 974 | 1042 | 1278 | 1349 | 1324 | 1294 | 4% |
Note: The percentage increase in homicides is not a reliable statistic due to the small numbers involved; one extra or fewer homicide in a given year can drastically sway the results.
Offences in Decline
Since 2003, the reported number of nine types of offences has dropped: miscellaneous crimes against society, robbery, shoplifting, bicycle theft, domestic burglary, criminal damage and arson, vehicle offences, non-domestic burglary and other theft offences. The number of reported incidents of these offences dropped anywhere from 1% (for miscellaneous crimes against society) to 85% (for non-residential burglaries) over the past 15 years.
In particular, incidents of burglaries, bicycle thefts and criminal damage are down. Residential burglary dropped 45% over the 15 years from 2003 to 2018, with the number of reported incidents declining from 989 per year to 546 in 2018. Non-residential burglaries dropped even more significantly, from 1,863 events to 277 over the same time period (a drop of 85%). Residents are 69% less likely to be the victim of vehicle crime (e.g., car theft), with the number of offences dropping from 1,608 in 2003 to 496 in 2018. Reported criminal damage and arson is down 48% and bicycle theft is down 44%.
| Offence | 2003 | 2008 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | % Change (2003-2018) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miscellaneous crimes against society | 235 | 160 | 135 | 153 | 212 | 194 | 240 | 232 | -1% |
| Robbery | 70 | 49 | 34 | 33 | 35 | 44 | 49 | 68 | -3% |
| Shoplifting | 1027 | 742 | 850 | 752 | 698 | 618 | 660 | 694 | -32% |
| All other theft offences | 2240 | 1614 | 1343 | 1141 | 1255 | 1231 | 1232 | 1275 | -43% |
| Bicycle theft | 290 | 268 | 228 | 174 | 191 | 221 | 190 | 161 | -44% |
| Residential burglary | 989 | 344 | 228 | 265 | 316 | 335 | 96 | 546 | -45% |
| Criminal damage and arson | 2410 | 2593 | 1251 | 1087 | 1271 | 1318 | 1408 | 1242 | -48% |
| Vehicle offences | 1608 | 959 | 697 | 523 | 487 | 532 | 515 | 496 | -69% |
| Non-residential burglary | 1863 | 838 | 727 | 636 | 683 | 667 | 151 | 277 | -85% |
Methodology
In order to uncover trends in criminal offences in Herefordshire from 2003 until 2018, we analysed Community Safety Partnership data from the Office of National Statistics.
From 2003 until 2006, annual offence data is available for each year ending in March. From 2007 onwards, rolling 12-month data is available on a quarterly basis. In order to access the most recently-available data for each year, we therefore transitioned to annual data ending for a year ending in December for the years 2007 until 2018 (while the 2003 to 2006 data is annual data for a year ending in March).
Note: The terminology used in reporting burglaries changed from June 2017, with crimes being reported as "residential/non-residential" instead of "domestic/non-domestic".